Global inflation trends show rising costs in Kenya and moderated expectations in the US

In Kenya, inflation rose to 6.8% in September 2026, up from 6.6% in August. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) maintained its benchmark policy rate at 8.75% for the eighth consecutive month. Core inflation increased to 4.0% from 3.4%, driven primarily by higher prices for processed foods. Despite the uptick, the CBK raised its 2026 growth projection to 5% due to strength in the services and industrial sectors.

In the United States, economists expect September headline inflation to reach between 3.6% and 3.7% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy costs. However, core inflation is projected to remain relatively stable, with the annual core rate expected to hold at 2.4%. Consequently, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October have decreased significantly, with the probability dropping to approximately 19%–20%.