Global Lamb Prices Projected to Surge as Beef Herds Shrink

Analyst Brett Stuart of Global Agritrends warned that lamb prices could reach 1,000 cents per kilogram by 2026 and 1,050 cents by 2027, with an average of about 1,225 cents per kilogram expected in 2027 and a peak of 1,233 cents in August. Current market rates are around $11.50 per kg. The upward pressure stems from a worldwide liquidation of beef herds, tighter EU export quotas and the prospect of higher U.S. tariffs on Australian and New Zealand lamb, which presently face a 10 % duty. Australia supplies roughly 60 % of global sheepmeat, with its biggest markets being China, the United States and the United Kingdom. In the U.S., lamb retail sales – a $959 million niche – grew 7.4 % in value this year, while slaughter volumes are forecast to fall 26 % for lamb and 36 % for mutton next year. Stuart described the trend as part of a broader “protein craze” across generations.