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Global LNG costs projected to rise by $39 billion amid Middle East disruptions
Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) importers are expected to face a significant cost surge in 2026, with total portfolio costs projected to reach at least $256.3 billion. This represents an increase of approximately $39 billion compared to pre-conflict estimates of $217.8 billion, according to Rystad Energy.
The price hike is driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East, specifically involving exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Modeling suggests these supplies could be unavailable from March 2025 through the end of 2026 due to escalating tensions and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the higher costs, global importers are projected to purchase 60.7 million tonnes less LNG in 2026.
Europe is anticipated to be the most heavily impacted region, with its LNG bill expected to rise by at least $12 billion (18%) even as demand declines by 24 million tonnes. This vulnerability is attributed to Europe’s high reliance on the spot market, which accounts for roughly 65% of its imports.
In a separate analysis, Shell reported that LNG is expected to see significant near-term growth, potentially reaching 550 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by the end of the decade, fueled by ongoing projects in the United States and Qatar.
Entities
Qatar · Rystad Energy · Shell · United Arab Emirates · United States
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] LNG importers will spend at least $39 billion more in 2026 than previously estimated. businessnews.com.my · cafef.vn
- [● 2 SOURCES] Global LNG portfolio costs are projected to reach at least $256.3 billion in 2026. businessnews.com.my · cafef.vn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] LNG demand is projected to reach around 550 million tonnes per year by the end of the decade. www.naturalgasworld.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Approximately 65% of Europe’s LNG imports are sourced through the spot market. businessnews.com.my · cafef.vn
- [● 2 SOURCES] Europe’s LNG bill is expected to increase by at least $12 billion in 2026. businessnews.com.my · cafef.vn
- [● 2 SOURCES] Global LNG importers are expected to buy 60.7 million tonnes less LNG in 2026. businessnews.com.my · cafef.vn
- [● 2 SOURCES] Supply disruptions are expected from Qatar and the UAE from March through the end of 2026. businessnews.com.my · cafef.vn
- [○ 1 SOURCE] LNG growth in the near term is being fueled by projects in Qatar and the United States. www.naturalgasworld.com