Global nuclear spending jumps to $119 billion, raising conflict risk

A 2025 report by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) finds that the nine nuclear‑armed states collectively spent nearly $119 billion on their arsenals, a 19% rise on the previous year. The spending surge reflects modernisation programmes, the re‑activation of nuclear warheads and the expansion of delivery systems, with the United States, Russia and China leading the increase. Experts warn that the heightened investment, combined with advances in artificial‑intelligence‑driven decision‑making, raises the probability of a nuclear confrontation.

A separate futures study surveyed 450 international experts about the world in 2036. Respondents expect China to overtake the United States as the largest economy, while the US retains a military advantage. The study warns that geopolitical tensions, climate crises and rapid AI development could make a major power conflict, especially over Taiwan, more likely. More than half of participants foresee Europe achieving greater strategic autonomy, and a majority anticipate the emergence of artificial general intelligence by 2036, adding further uncertainty to global security.