Global oil refining capacity projected to rise 4.2 mbpd by 2030

Global oil refining capacity is projected to increase by 4.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) between 2026 and 2030. According to BloombergNEF, this growth represents a significant rebound compared to previous years, with approximately 95% of net capacity additions expected to come from Africa and the Asia Pacific region.

Growth is driven by expansions at existing facilities and new refinery projects, particularly in China and India, which are expected to account for 71% of capacity additions in 2026 and 2027. However, capacity retirements in Europe and North America are expected to reduce global capacity by roughly 200,000 bpd during this period.

In the United States, refinery capacity decreased by approximately 263,000 barrels per day in 2025. This decline was driven by major plant closures, including LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery, which together removed roughly 402,000 barrels per day of capacity. While additions at other sites partially offset these losses, the net result was a reduction in the country’s ability to process crude oil into fuels.