Global oil reserves face uncertainty amid US-Iran conflict

As the conflict between the United States and Iran continues, concerns are rising regarding whether global oil reserves are sufficient to withstand a prolonged supply disruption. The scale of the current shortage is significant; Saudi Aramco estimates that the world has lost 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the start of the conflict. This represents the largest cumulative supply disruption since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

While the loss equates to approximately 25 days of pre-war global consumption, factors such as reduced demand in China may influence the duration of the crisis. Analysts estimate a daily supply gap of roughly 5 million barrels per day needed to meet demand, though Aramco suggests the daily loss from the Gulf region could be as high as 11 million barrels.

Additional disruptions have impacted supply, such as the July incident where Ukrainian drones affected Kazakhstan’s CPC pipeline, which transports 1.8 million barrels daily. The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously noted that global economies maintain significant reserves, having released 400 million barrels from emergency stocks in March.