Global oil supply buffers deplete amid ongoing Iran conflict

Global crude oil supply buffers are rapidly depleting as the conflict in Iran enters its eighth month. The International Energy Agency estimates that global inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since the conflict began, an average reduction of approximately 2.8 million barrels per day.

In Australia, industry leaders warn that the emergency reserves used to shield motorists from Middle East supply shocks are diminishing. Malcolm Roberts, head of the Australian Institute of Petroleum, noted that industry and government stocks are significantly lower than previous levels, raising the risk of increased petrol and diesel prices.

In Asia, crude oil imports are rebounding but remain approximately 13% below pre-war levels. While September imports are projected to reach 23.96 million barrels per day, the region remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude, which continues to be constrained by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent drone strikes have further strained the market by forcing the suspension of a major Saudi Arabian crude pipeline used to bypass the strait.