Global oil supply faces volatility as conflict zones produce 43% of world output

Global oil supply is facing significant volatility as conflict-affected regions now account for approximately 43% of the world's oil production. Reports indicate that countries directly involved in or impacted by wars produced about 45 million barrels per day in 2025.

In the Persian Gulf, oil exports have returned to roughly two-thirds of pre-conflict levels. Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that total regional exports of crude and refined products have increased to between 15 and 16 million barrels per day. This rise is supported by an increase in shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing regional tensions. To adapt to Middle East conflicts, producers and shipping companies are utilizing specialized vessels and ship-to-ship transfers, sometimes employing “going dark” tactics by disabling satellite transponders to avoid detection.

These increased flows have helped stabilize global prices, with crude oil dropping from over $120 per barrel in April to approximately $89 per barrel. However, disruptions in the Persian Gulf are estimated to be affecting between 5 and 7 million barrels per day. While crude oil flows have seen some recovery, exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined fuels remain lower, posing potential risks for future energy price spikes in Europe.