Global Peace Index: Geopolitical risks exceed Cold War levels

The 2026 Global Peace Index, prepared by the Institute for Economics and Peace, indicates that geopolitical risks have surpassed levels seen during the Cold War. The report highlights a significant rise in active state-based conflicts, noting that 103 countries were involved in at least one external conflict in the five years preceding the report, compared to 59 countries in 2008.

Global peacefulness has declined for 12 consecutive years. The report notes that in 2025, there were 117 million forcibly displaced people. Furthermore, the likelihood of conflicts ending in peace agreements has dropped significantly, from 23% in the 1970s to just 4% in the 2010s. The index warns that as wars become more internationalized, there is an increasing risk of conflicts spreading and forming clusters.

Economically, the impact of violence is estimated at US$21.8 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity, representing approximately 11% of global GDP. In contrast, expenditure on peacebuilding and peacekeeping was recorded at US$49 billion, which accounts for only 0.5% of global military expenditure.