Global population of seniors surpasses children for first time

demographic shift global aging fertility rates population replacement senior citizens

New data from the U.S. Census Bureau reveals a historic demographic shift: for the first time in recorded history, the global population of people aged 65 and older has surpassed the number of children aged 5 and under.

This inversion is driven by a combination of declining global fertility rates and increased life expectancy. In 2023, over 71 percent of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the 2.1 replacement level, a significant increase from 43 percent in 2013. This trend is no longer limited to wealthy nations; major populous countries including China, India, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam now report below-replacement birth rates.

The elderly population is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for approximately 55 percent of all net global population growth during that period. Consequently, one in five people on Earth is expected to be over 65 by 2060. While the United States is currently the 48th oldest country, its relative ranking is expected to drop to 110th as other nations age more rapidly. In Africa, the senior population is projected to more than quadruple, potentially surpassing Europe's elderly population by 2060.

Entities

Axios · U.S. Census Bureau · US Census Bureau · United Nations · World Bank

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 8 SOURCES] China, India, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam all have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1. srpskacafe.com · drukciji.ba · pulptastic.com · tharos.gr · earthreview.net · +3 more
[● 8 SOURCES] In 2023, over 71 percent of the global population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the 2.1 replacement level. srpskacafe.com · drukciji.ba · pulptastic.com · tharos.gr · earthreview.net · +3 more
[● 9 SOURCES] For the first time in history, the global population of people aged 65 and older has surpassed the number of children aged 5 and under. srpskacafe.com · drukciji.ba · pulptastic.com · tharos.gr · earthreview.net · +4 more
[● 4 SOURCES] The United States is currently the 48th oldest country globally, with 18.9 percent of its population aged 65 or older. pulptastic.com · earthreview.net · www.newsbytesapp.com · nypost.com
[● 8 SOURCES] The population of people aged 65 and older is projected to increase from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060. srpskacafe.com · drukciji.ba · pulptastic.com · tharos.gr · earthreview.net · +3 more
[● 2 SOURCES] Africa's senior population is projected to increase from 60 million to 249 million by 2060, surpassing Europe's projected senior population. pulptastic.com · www.newsbytesapp.com