Global steel market faces volatility amid regional production shifts

The global steel market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz, rising energy costs, and fluctuating demand. In the United States, a divergence is emerging between steel and scrap prices; hot-rolled coil prices have risen due to protective tariffs, while scrap prices have declined amid global oversupply concerns.

In India, the sector shows strong momentum. Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) reported a 13% year-on-year increase in August sales, reaching 1.87 million tonnes, with record demand for specialized products and railway supplies. Similarly, Steel Exchange India Limited achieved its highest-ever monthly re-bar production of 24,823 metric tonnes in August following the commissioning of a new reheating furnace.

In Vietnam, VinMetal, a subsidiary of Vingroup, is seeking environmental permits for a $3.2 billion steel complex in Ha Tinh, which plans to import approximately 950,000 tonnes of scrap steel annually. Meanwhile, China Steel Corporation has announced price increases for October and the fourth quarter, citing high metallurgical coal costs and supply constraints caused by US tariff policies and routine maintenance in Europe.

Globally, the supply-demand balance remains precarious. While China's real estate investment continues to decline, affecting domestic steel demand, other regions like Vietnam are seeing increased crude steel production.