Global temperatures could rise 3.25°C by 2100, study finds

A new study conducted by researchers from ETH Zürich and the University of Leipzig suggests that global temperatures could rise by approximately 3.25 degrees Celsius by the end of the century under current climate policies. The findings indicate that previous climate projections may have underestimated the intensity and speed of future warming.

Lead author Gergana Gyuleva noted that without urgent and drastic reductions in emissions, warming could be 25 percent higher than previously estimated. The research incorporated natural climate variability and satellite measurements of Earth’s energy imbalance—the difference between incoming solar energy and heat radiated back into space—to refine these projections.

The implications are particularly severe for Switzerland, which is warming faster than the global average. In a scenario where the world warms by three degrees, Switzerland could experience an average temperature increase of approximately 4.9 degrees Celsius. Historical data from extreme summers already show rising trends, with cities like Basel, Bern, and Zürich recording significantly more days above 30 degrees Celsius in recent years compared to previous decades.