Global temperatures in 2026 projected to tie or surpass 2024 record

Analysis from Carbon Brief indicates that 2026 is highly likely to be the warmest or second-warmest year on record. A combination of human-caused global warming and a rapidly strengthening El Niño has driven temperatures upward, with August 2026 recorded as the warmest August on record across six major datasets.

Data shows that September 2026 was the second-warmest September on record, trailing only 2023. The period from January to September was the second-warmest on record, approximately 1.45C above pre-industrial levels. The El Niño pattern has broken daily records in the Niño3.4 region and is projected to intensify this winter, potentially becoming the strongest on record.

Projections suggest 2027 could reach 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96% chance of being the warmest year on record. Regional impacts include Western Europe experiencing its hottest summer on record and Spain recording its warmest September.