Global wheat and corn production expected to fall in 2026/27

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that world wheat output for the 2026/27 marketing year will be about 820 million tonnes, roughly 3 % lower than the previous season, with expected use of 825 million tonnes, trade of 213 million tonnes and ending stocks of 275 million tonnes (down 2 %). In the European Union, farmers are forecast to harvest 129.2 million tonnes of autumn wheat from 21.5 million hectares, a 6 % reduction. National outlooks show France at 33 million tonnes (‑1 %), Germany at 22.2 million tonnes (‑3 %), Poland at 12.2 million tonnes (‑10 %), Romania at 12.6 million tonnes (+0.5 %) and Hungary at 5.2 million tonnes. Wheat futures traded between $214‑$225 per tonne on Chicago’s CME/CBOT and €200‑€204 on Euronext/MATIF.

For corn, USDA forecasts a global harvest of 1.30 billion tonnes for 2026/27, about 2 % below the prior year, with use of 1.323 billion tonnes and ending stocks of 281 million tonnes (‑7 %). The EU’s corn area is expected to shrink by 8 % to 7.5 million hectares, producing 130 million tonnes. France may deliver 12.2 million tonnes (‑10 %) from 1.4 million hectares, Poland 8.9 million tonnes (‑2 %), Romania 7.6 million tonnes (+16 %), Italy 4.8 million tonnes (‑5.5 %) and Hungary about 4.5 million tonnes. Corn futures were quoted at $162‑$166 per tonne in Chicago and €210‑€217 in Paris.