Global Wildfire Forecasting Gaps Highlight Need for Action

Recent analyses show that while wildfire forecasting systems exist in Canada, the United States, Europe and Australia, the information often fails to prompt timely action until fires are already burning. Canada’s 2023 wildfire season burned over 14.6 million hectares and forced more than 230,000 evacuations, underscoring the “action gap” between forecast warnings and ground response. The UN Environment Programme projects extreme wildfires could increase by up to 14 % by 2030, 30 % by 2050 and 50 % by the end of the century if current trends continue.

Prevention strategies are gaining attention as the most cost‑effective way to reduce risk. Prescribed burning, combined with mechanical thinning, has been shown by the U.S. Forest Service to lower fire intensity and improve control. Western Australia’s long‑running prescribed‑burn program demonstrated reduced fire severity after the 2011 Perth Hills bushfire. Similar fire‑danger forecasting tools operate through Canada’s Fire Weather Index, Europe’s EFFIS and Australia’s CSIRO Spark framework, but their impact remains limited without coordinated on‑the‑ground actions.