Gold prices trend toward 6% monthly loss amid U.S. inflation data anticipation

Gold prices are trending toward a monthly loss of over 6% as market sentiment is pressured by expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Spot gold fell 0.2% to approximately $4,170.63 per ounce, while U.S. futures rose 0.5% to $4,201.90.

Investors are closely awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to gain insight into future monetary policy. Tony Sege, CEO of Critical Metals, noted that a weak reading could support gold and potentially return prices to the $4,200–$4,300 range, whereas a high reading could drive the dollar and yields higher, testing the $4,100 support level.

Market data from FedWatch suggests traders see a 47% probability of a rate hike in October and a 91% probability in December. The strengthening U.S. dollar is also making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. Other precious metals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, are also facing downward monthly trends.