Gold price rises on Asian and crypto-sector buying amid geopolitical tensions

Gold prices climbed about 4 % in the first quarter of 2026, moving from $4,315 to $4,488 per ounce, after a volatile start that saw the price briefly near $5,600 in January and dip to $4,100 in March. WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah attributes the rally to a broader investor base, including Chinese insurers, Indian pension funds and digital‑asset issuers such as Tether, whose on‑chain purchases are estimated at 60‑70 tonnes of gold for 2025. Geopolitical developments – a power shift in Venezuela, talks of a U.S. takeover of Greenland and pressure on Federal Reserve independence – have also buoyed demand. The firm’s consensus forecast expects gold to average around $5,500 per ounce over the next twelve months.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s long‑term holder balance hit a record 15.8 million coins, but CryptoQuant warns that the surge reflects a lack of new buyers rather than bullish confidence. Short‑term holdings have fallen by roughly 2.2 million since December, and activity among large‑address “whales” and mid‑size “dolphins” – indicators of institutional demand – is slowing. Analysts from Glassnode note a weakening spot‑market demand, suggesting that future price moves will depend on whether fresh buying returns.

Both stories highlight a shift in investor behaviour, with traditional safe‑haven assets and crypto markets reacting to similar macro‑risk factors and changing participation patterns.