Goldman Sachs forecasts music industry growth to $198 billion by 2035

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its long-term forecast for the music industry in its tenth annual ‘Music in the Air’ report. The bank predicts the total music market, including recorded music, publishing, and live entertainment, will reach approximately $198.1 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 5.8% to 5.9%.

Recorded music revenue is specifically projected to grow to $56.1 billion by 2035. This growth is driven largely by streaming, which saw 73 million new subscribers primarily from emerging markets, and a resurgence in physical media, with vinyl sales increasing by 13.7%.

Despite the bullish overall outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a selective stance on music rights owners, such as record labels and publishers, favoring distributors and live entertainment businesses instead. This cautious outlook on labels coincides with significant leadership changes at Universal Music Group, where the heads of Def Jam, Polydor UK, Republic Records, and Interscope Geffen A&M recently departed as part of a €250 million annual cost-cutting program.