Goldman Sachs predicts crude oil prices to drop to $80 by 2027

Goldman Sachs reports that global crude oil prices could decrease to an average of $80 per barrel by 2027. This projection is driven by an expected supply surplus and improved oil exports from the Middle East.

The investment bank has adjusted its near-term forecasts, now estimating Brent crude at $90 per barrel in December 2026, up from a previous estimate of $85. While global supply shortages have diminished due to increased production outside the Persian Gulf and stabilized exports, geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran remain a significant risk factor that could keep prices elevated for longer than expected.

Market data shows that the gap between supply and demand narrowed significantly in September, with demand exceeding supply by only 0.3 million barrels per day, compared to a 7.2 million barrel deficit in March. Goldman Sachs anticipates the global oil market will enter a surplus state in the fourth quarter of 2026 and maintain that position through 2027. Currently, prices include a risk premium of approximately $25 per barrel due to potential supply disruptions and the need to replenish global stocks.