Goldman Sachs warns European natural gas prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh

natural gas prices LNG competition European energy storage TTF futures Middle East conflict

Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr warn that European natural gas prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh by December to ensure adequate reserve replenishment ahead of winter. While TTF futures recently hit a five-month high above 65 EUR/MWh, analysts suggest these levels may be insufficient to attract necessary liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from Asia.

Several factors are driving this potential price surge. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has restricted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for available LNG. Additionally, the replenishment of gas storage in Northwestern Europe has been slower than usual this year. Current projections suggest storage levels will end August at approximately 51% fullness, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the bank's previous baseline estimate.

If Middle East supply disruptions persist through 2027, the pressure on European markets is expected to remain high. Such a price spike would impact various sectors, including electricity generation, industrial production, and household heating costs.

Entities

Asia · Bloomberg · Europe · Goldman Sachs · Laura Cyr · Middle East · Samantha Dart · TTF

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 10 SOURCES] Northwestern European gas storage is expected to end August with approximately 51% fullness. www.energygame.gr · www.insider.gr · www.powergame.gr · www.energymag.gr · thefaq.gr · +5 more
[● 10 SOURCES] Conflict in the Middle East is increasing competition for LNG between Europe and Asia due to restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. www.energygame.gr · www.insider.gr · www.powergame.gr · www.energymag.gr · thefaq.gr · +5 more
[● 10 SOURCES] Current TTF futures prices above 65 EUR/MWh are insufficient to attract necessary LNG cargoes from Asia. www.energygame.gr · www.insider.gr · www.powergame.gr · www.energymag.gr · thefaq.gr · +5 more
[● 10 SOURCES] European natural gas prices may need to exceed 100 EUR/MWh in December to ensure sufficient reserve replenishment for winter. www.energygame.gr · www.insider.gr · www.powergame.gr · www.energymag.gr · thefaq.gr · +5 more
[● 10 SOURCES] The 51% storage level is 3.4 percentage points lower than the bank's previous baseline estimate. www.energygame.gr · www.insider.gr · www.powergame.gr · www.energymag.gr · thefaq.gr · +5 more