Grayscale: Bitcoin Likely Bottomed If Federal Reserve Holds Rates

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, argued that Bitcoin may have already reached the bottom of its current bear market, but only if the Federal Reserve refrains from raising rates. He dismissed the traditional four‑year halving cycle, saying the cryptocurrency now behaves like a macro‑economic asset whose price is driven by interest‑rate policy and liquidity.

At the time of the note, Bitcoin was trading around $65,000, up more than 10% from its early‑July low of $57,717. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $1 billion of net inflows over seven consecutive sessions, indicating growing institutional demand. Market participants were pricing a 66% chance that the Fed would keep rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting, down from 88% a week earlier. Pandl also mentioned the pending CLARITY Act deadline on August 7 as another factor that could affect price direction.

Grayscale concluded that, with the Fed holding rates, Bitcoin’s price floor may already be in place, but any tightening or regulatory setbacks could push the price lower.