Grayscale says Bitcoin may have hit its low if the Fed pauses rate hikes

Grayscale released a new research note questioning the traditional four‑year Bitcoin cycle and tying a potential market bottom to U.S. monetary policy. The firm argues that if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, Bitcoin could have already reached its cyclic low, possibly stabilising around $60,000‑$65,000.

The analysis also outlines three scenarios: a bullish breakout above $66,000 could drive the price toward $68,500‑$70,000; a consolidation phase between $62,000‑$66,000 while markets await clearer Fed signals; and a bearish drop below $60,000 that would revive the four‑year cycle argument. Grayscale notes continued institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs as a supportive factor.

Overall, the outlook depends heavily on upcoming Fed decisions scheduled for late July, with the firm suggesting that a pause would mitigate downside risk and may signal the end of the current bear market.