Greece economy faces inflation risks despite IMF package

The Greek economy faces a critical period following the conclusion of the IMF program. While the IMF has allocated a 3.5 billion euro package through 2030—including tax relief, wage increases, and support for various sectors—geopolitical instability threatens these economic projections.

Rising energy costs are a primary concern. Brent crude has reached approximately 105 dollars per barrel, with North Sea oil for immediate delivery hitting 120 dollars. Additionally, gas prices (TTG) are between 80-85 euros per megawatt-hour. These increases, driven in part by military operations in the Persian Gulf and tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, are contributing to energy-driven inflation.

In Greece, inflation rose to 3.8% in August from 3.4% in July, fueled by a 14.3% increase in European energy prices. There is significant concern that the economic benefits from the IMF package, such as higher minimum wages and tax cuts, may be offset by the rising costs of fuel, electricity, and consumer goods.