Greek economy forecast to grow 1.8‑2% in 2026‑27 as inflation stays above euro‑zone average

The Institute of Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) projects Greece’s real GDP to expand by 1.8 % in 2026 and 2 % in 2027, with consumer‑price inflation expected at 3.7 % in 2026 and easing to 2.7 % in 2027. Investment is projected to rise sharply, with fixed‑capital spending up 7.6 % in 2026 and 8.5 % in 2027, while private consumption should increase by about 1.6 % in 2026. The labour market outlook shows unemployment falling to 8.6 % in 2026 and 8.2 % in 2027, driven by gains in services and trade. Eurobank Research notes a slowdown in inflation in June 2026 to 3.9 % after earlier peaks, and highlights a modest pick‑up in industrial production and a narrowing current‑account deficit. The Bank of Greece forecasts a 1.9 % growth rate for 2026, outpacing the euro‑zone’s 0.5 % pace, and projects inflation around 3.8 % for the year. Key risks include persistently higher inflation than the euro‑zone average, energy‑price shocks linked to the Middle‑East conflict, pre‑election political uncertainty, and possible delays in absorbing EU recovery‑fund resources. Despite the challenges, the IMF notes that Greece remains among the euro‑zone economies where public‑debt ratios continue to fall.