Greece passes ESM stress test as public debt keeps falling

Greece European Stability Mechanism public debt stress test Eurozone debt outlook

The European Stability Mechanism’s (ESM) “Euro Area Stability Watch” report confirms that Greece passed the stress test for its public debt. Under a severe adverse scenario – featuring heightened tensions in the Middle East, a rise in energy prices and a sharp decline in U.S. equity and bond markets – public‑debt ratios are projected to increase across the euro‑area by 2035. Greece (and Cyprus) are the only members expected to see further debt declines, continuing the fastest reduction in the bloc.

Eurostat data show Greece’s government‑debt ratio fell to 143.5 % of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, a drop of 9.4 percentage points from the same period a year earlier, the steepest quarterly fall in the euro‑zone. The ESM projects the ratio will continue to fall, reaching roughly 110.9 % of GDP by 2031. By contrast, the baseline scenario forecasts euro‑area debt rising to about 103 % of GDP by 2035, roughly 20 percentage points higher than in the baseline projection.

The same adverse scenario anticipates a euro‑area GDP contraction of 0.4 % in 2027 and inflation hovering near 5 % (average 3.4 %). The IMF concurs that Greece’s debt will drop to about 110.9 % of GDP by 2031. These assessments underline Greece’s fiscal resilience despite broader regional risks.

Entities

Cyprus · Euro Area Stability Watch · European Commission · European Stability Mechanism · European Stability Mechanism (ESM) · Eurostat · Eurozone · Greece · International Monetary Fund · International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 16 SOURCES] The adverse scenario predicts Eurozone GDP contraction of 0.4 % in 2027 and inflation around 5 % (average 3.4 %). www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +10 more
[● 2 SOURCES] The International Monetary Fund projects Greece’s debt ratio will fall to 110.9 % of GDP by 2031. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr
[● 13 SOURCES] Greece recorded the fastest public‑debt reduction among Eurozone members in Q1 2026. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +7 more
[● 16 SOURCES] The Eurozone’s public‑debt ratio is expected to rise to about 103 % of GDP by 2035 under the baseline scenario. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +10 more
[● 3 SOURCES] The ESM’s “Euro Area Stability Watch” report assesses macro‑economic and financial risks for the Eurozone. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr
[● 3 SOURCES] The report projects that Greece’s public debt will continue to fall over the next decade even under a severe adverse scenario. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr
[● 9 SOURCES] Cyprus is the only other Eurozone country, besides Greece, projected to see its public debt decline under the adverse scenario. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · www.lykavitos.gr · +3 more
[● 4 SOURCES] Greece’s debt ratio fell to 143.5 % of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, a 9.4‑percentage‑point drop from the same period a year earlier. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr
[● 14 SOURCES] Under a severe adverse scenario, Greece’s public debt will continue to fall, unlike other Eurozone countries where it would rise. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +8 more
[● 14 SOURCES] Greek public‑debt ratio fell to 143.5 % of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, a 9.4‑percentage‑point drop from the previous year. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +8 more
[● 16 SOURCES] The International Monetary Fund projects Greece’s debt ratio will fall to about 110.9 % of GDP by 2031. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +10 more
[● 13 SOURCES] The ESM report projects that Greece and Cyprus are the only Eurozone members whose debt will keep falling even under a severe adverse scenario. www.neaptolemaidas.gr · www.tromaktiko.gr · www.dimokratia.gr · www.dnews.gr · emvolos.gr · +7 more