Greek Public Debt Declines After ESM Stress‑Test Assessment
The European Stability Mechanism’s (ESM) “Euro Area Stability Watch” report evaluates macro‑economic and financial risks for the Eurozone and finds that Greece’s public debt will keep falling over the next decade, even under a severe adverse scenario. In the first quarter of 2026 Greece’s debt ratio dropped to 143.5 % of GDP – a 9.4‑percentage‑point fall from the same period a year earlier – giving it the fastest debt‑reduction pace among Eurozone members. The report also notes that the Eurozone as a whole is expected to see its public‑debt ratio rise to about 103 % of GDP by 2035 under the baseline outlook, with a recession risk (GDP down 0.4 % in 2027) and inflation near 5 % (average 3.4 %). Cyprus is the only other country projected to continue decreasing its debt under the adverse scenario. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) similarly forecasts Greece’s debt ratio will fall to 110.9 % of GDP by 2031.
Entities: European Stability Mechanism (ESM) · Eurostat · Eurozone · Greece · International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 2 SOURCES] The adverse scenario predicts Eurozone GDP contraction of 0.4 % in 2027 and inflation around 5 % (average 3.4 %). (ESM adverse scenario)
- [● 2 SOURCES] The International Monetary Fund projects Greece’s debt ratio will fall to 110.9 % of GDP by 2031. (IMF forecast cited in the ESM report)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Greece recorded the fastest public‑debt reduction among Eurozone members in Q1 2026. (Eurostat comparison cited in the ESM report)
- [● 3 SOURCES] The ESM’s “Euro Area Stability Watch” report assesses macro‑economic and financial risks for the Eurozone. (ESM report)
- [● 3 SOURCES] The report projects that Greece’s public debt will continue to fall over the next decade even under a severe adverse scenario. (ESM report)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Cyprus is the only other Eurozone country, besides Greece, projected to see its public debt decline under the adverse scenario. (ESM adverse scenario)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Under the baseline scenario the Eurozone’s public‑debt ratio is expected to rise to about 103 % of GDP by 2035. (ESM baseline scenario)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Greece’s debt ratio fell to 143.5 % of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, a 9.4‑percentage‑point drop from the same period a year earlier. (Eurostat data cited in the ESM report)