Greece earns confidence boost from OECD and EU Commission as growth hits 2% Q1 2026

The Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission have issued reports that portray the Greek economy as a model of strong growth and resilience. Both agencies note that Greece has been removed from the EU list of countries with macro‑economic imbalances after 16 years of monitoring, ending the formal surveillance programme. At the same time, ten other euro‑area members remain in excess‑deficit programmes.

Greek gross domestic product expanded by 2 % in the first quarter of 2026, matching the government’s annual target. The rise was led by public investment, which jumped 12.1 % year‑on‑year, largely due to accelerated projects funded by the Recovery and Resilience Fund. Final consumption grew 1 % and exports of goods and services increased 2.4 %, while imports rose only 0.5 %, narrowing the trade deficit.

Bond markets reflected the improved outlook: the yield on the ten‑year Greek sovereign bond settled around 3.7 %, lower than Italy’s 3.78 %. The OECD projects public debt to fall to 135.8 % of GDP in 2026 (down from 146.5 % in 2025), while the Commission estimates a debt ratio of about 141 % for the same year. Both bodies forecast 2026 growth of roughly 1.8‑1.9 %, with the IMF at 1.8 % and the Commission at 1.8 %.

Analysts see the reports as a positive signal for rating agencies and suggest a potential upgrade of Greece’s credit rating later in the year, despite ongoing geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle‑East conflict.