Greece's public debt set to fall below 140% of GDP in 2026 and 120% by 2029

The latest projections of the Greek Ministry of Finance show the public‑debt‑to‑GDP ratio will drop to 136.8% in 2026, the first time it falls below the 140% level that marked the start of the 2010‑2018 bailout programme. Further reductions are forecast: 131.5% in 2027, 124.6% in 2028 and 119% in 2029, putting the ratio under the 120% threshold that rating agencies watch closely.

The decline is driven by strong economic growth, sizable primary surpluses and an aggressive schedule of early debt repayments. Since 2019 the government has repaid about €29.3 billion of bilateral loans from the first‑generation Greek Loan Facility, with a further €6.9 billion planned for 2026, bringing total early repayments past €36 billion. The remaining external debt—mostly from the European Stability Mechanism, the EFSF and the Greek Loan Facility—totals €211.4 billion and is scheduled for full repayment by 2070. While the debt trajectory improves Greece’s financing conditions, a large share of the liability remains and interest costs will stay significant.