Greek olive oil output to fall 18% as EU production dips, Tunisia steps up as supplier

The European Commission’s 2026 short‑term agricultural market outlook forecasts a 5% decline in EU olive‑oil production, falling to about 2.1 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season. Greece is projected to see the sharpest drop, an 18% fall compared with 2024/25, while Spain’s output is expected to be 9% lower due to heavy rains. In contrast, Italy could post a 31% increase thanks to the alternate‑bearing effect of its olive trees, and Portugal a modest 1% rise.

Despite the reduced harvest, EU olive‑oil exports are slated to rise 6% to roughly 794 000 tonnes, with growing shipments to China (which has doubled its imports by March 2026), Brazil, the United Kingdom and Japan, while exports to the United States are falling. Tunisia remains the principal third‑country supplier; EU olive‑oil imports are projected to jump 24% to 223 000 tonnes as cheaper Tunisian oil fills the gap left by lower Spanish production.

Prices, which had stabilised in early 2025/26, began to fall again from late April. Spanish extra‑virgin olive oil fell from €4.27 kg⁻¹ in October 2025 to €3.97 kg⁻¹ by early June 2026. Greece will record the largest per‑capita consumption decline in the EU for 2025/26. The outlook for the 2026/27 harvest is optimistic, with expected favourable weather and adequate water supplies.