Greek olive oil production expected to reach 300,000 tons

Greek olive oil producers are entering the 2026/27 season with improved production outlooks but stabilized prices. Estimates for Greek production suggest a volume between 280,000 and 330,000 tons, with 300,000 tons being the most likely scenario according to industry leaders.

Producer prices for high-quality extra virgin olive oil are currently estimated around €3.90 to €4.20 per kilogram. This represents a significant correction from the historical highs of approximately €9.50 per kilogram seen during the peak of the previous crisis.

The market remains heavily dependent on Spain, which serves as the primary barometer for regional pricing. While initial Spanish production forecasts were as high as 1.8 million tons, extreme summer heat and drought have lowered expectations to between 1.4 and 1.5 million tons. This reduction in the Spanish harvest helps prevent a potential collapse in market prices, as a massive surplus would have exerted much greater downward pressure.