Brazil citrus sector faces production drop and greening disease

The Brazilian citrus sector faces significant challenges for the 2026/27 harvest, driven by the spread of greening disease and declining production. According to Fundecitrus, nearly 48% of orange trees in the main production belt are contaminated by the disease.

Production in São Paulo and the Triângulo and Sudoeste regions of Minas Gerais is projected at 263.15 million boxes, approximately 10.7 million tons. While this estimate is 3.1% higher than previous forecasts due to increased fruit weight from recent rainfall, it still represents a roughly 10% decrease compared to the 2025/26 season.

Despite the positive impact of rainfall, which was 51% above the historical average, risks remain high. Fruit loss rates are elevated, with projected losses reaching up to 30.9% for certain varieties. The combination of disease, falling global juice consumption, and high pest exposure continues to pressure producers and the industry.