Guinea-Bissau faces political crisis ahead of constitutional referendum

Guinea-Bissau is facing significant political tension ahead of a constitutional referendum scheduled for August 30. The National Elections Commission (CNE) has announced that political parties are excluded from campaigning for either the “Yes” or “No” sides. While political figures may participate, they are prohibited from doing so under party banners and must instead join legally recognized citizen groups or civil society actors.

Opposition parties, including the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), have rejected the referendum. Critics argue the process lacks legitimacy because it was initiated by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló without consulting parliamentary institutions or political forces. This follows the dissolution of the National People's Assembly in December 2023.

Human rights advocates and civil society organizations have expressed concerns regarding democratic backsliding. They cite the continued closure of political party headquarters and the exclusion of major political actors from the constitutional revision process as signs of an institutional crisis. Some observers characterize the upcoming vote as an attempt to provide a democratic veneer to a transition of power following previous political instability.