Caribbean economic outlook shows significant regional divergence

The Caribbean economy is experiencing divergent trends across various sectors. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the regional economy is projected to grow by 5.6% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027. However, this figure is heavily driven by Guyana, which is expected to see massive expansion of 16.2% in 2026 and 19.7% in 2027 due to its oil resources. Without Guyana, regional growth is forecast to drop to just 1.1% in 2026.

In the tourism sector, the Caribbean has seen seven consecutive months of growth in hotel occupancy, reaching an average of 73.4% between January and July 2026. This trend has supported markets like Aruba, with regional hotel rates increasing by 5.3% compared to the previous year.

In the Dominican Republic, JPMorgan has upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to approximately 4.5%, citing a strong first half of the year and significant energy financing.

Meanwhile, regional businesses face structural hurdles. Data from the AI Capital Exchange indicates a ‘capital-readiness gap,’ where many Caribbean companies seeking institutional financing lack sufficient cash equity, audited financial statements, or the necessary financial documentation to meet lending requirements.