Haiti faces economic risks from potential US TPS policy changes

A study published by the Banque de la République d’Haïti (BRH) warns that changes to the United States’ Temporary Protected Status (TPS) could significantly impact Haiti’s macro-financial stability. The research, conducted by the BRH’s Department of Economic and Financial Research, examines how a reduction in diaspora remittances would affect the national economy.

Remittances accounted for approximately 17 percent of Haiti’s GDP in 2024, with an estimated 79 percent of these funds originating from the diaspora in the United States. The study simulates various contraction scenarios over a 24-month period. In a worst-case scenario involving a 30 percent decrease in transfers, the researchers project a 2.5 percent average depreciation of the gourde, a 9.4 percent decline in net international reserves, and a public deficit increase of 241 million gourdes.

Even a 10 percent reduction is expected to cause a 0.7 percent depreciation of the gourde and a 3 percent drop in net international reserves. The report identifies the exchange rate as the primary channel through which these shocks would be transmitted to the Haitian economy.