Hamas Disarmament Odds Rise on Prediction Markets

Prediction‑market platform Polymarket has sharply increased the probability that Hamas will announce a disarmament commitment by Dec. 31, 2026. One market shows odds of 87% after reports of intensified mediation involving Egypt, Qatar and the United States, while another market, updated after a U.S. peace‑deal announcement by President Donald Trump, lists a 61% chance. The contracts resolve positively only if Hamas issues a formal, publicly acknowledged statement confirming full or partial disarmament, not merely a vague intent. The markets have attracted substantial trading volume—over $2.9 million in total, with more than $892,000 placed on the disarmament outcome alone. The odds reflect traders’ assessment of the likelihood that the announced 15‑point roadmap, which includes weapons decommissioning and international oversight, will lead to a credible Hamas commitment.