Hawaiʻi hurricane risk may shift toward stronger storms

Researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) have found that a warmer future climate could lead to stronger tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi. While the total number of storms may not necessarily increase, the intensity of those that do occur could rise.

To overcome the limitations of a small historical observational record, the team utilized the Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard computer model. This model generated thousands of years of synthetic tropical cyclones based on atmospheric and oceanic conditions from seven global climate models. This allowed for a more comprehensive analysis of storm frequency, intensity, tracks, and duration under historical, mid-century, and late-century climate scenarios, including high-emissions projections and El Niño conditions.