1960 Science study predicted population doomsday for November 2026

A 1960 study published in the journal Science, titled ‘Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A. D. 2026’, has resurfaced due to its prediction that human population growth would reach mathematically infinite levels by November 13, 2026.

Authored by Heinz von Foerster and his students at the University of Illinois, the model was based on 24 historical population estimates spanning 2,000 years. The researchers hypothesized that human cooperation and innovation would accelerate population growth faster than other species, potentially leading to a crisis where humanity is ‘crushed by its own growth’ rather than starving.

However, demographers note that the prediction is unlikely to materialize. While the model appeared accurate for several decades, global population growth rates began to decline significantly around 1993. Factors such as improved public health, increased female education, urbanization, and the availability of contraception have slowed growth. United Nations data shows that the global growth rate peaked in the early 1960s and has since fallen, with the focus of demography shifting from overpopulation to issues like declining birth rates and aging populations.