Heinz von Foerster's 1960 population model predicted a 2026 crisis

In 1960, a study published in the journal Science by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot proposed a mathematical model predicting a population crisis by November 13, 2026. The researchers suggested that if global population growth continued at its observed rate, the number of humans would theoretically approach infinity by that date.

The model was based on 2,000 years of demographic history and the premise that human cooperation and communication accelerate growth rates beyond simple exponential patterns. While the prediction was once noted for its accuracy in tracking population trends through the 1970s and 1980s, the accuracy of the equation began to decline around 1993.

Ultimately, the predicted apocalypse will not occur because global population growth rates have slowed significantly. Human efforts to manage birth rates have resulted in current levels being approximately half of what they were in 1960, preventing the mathematical singularity predicted by the original study.