Heinz von Foerster's 1960 population model predicts 2026 singularity

A 1960 scientific paper published in the journal Science has resurfaced due to its prediction regarding November 13, 2026. The study, titled ‘Doomsday: Friday, November 13, 2026’, was authored by Heinz von Foerster along with students Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot.

Rather than predicting a natural disaster like an asteroid strike or nuclear war, the authors used a mathematical model to project human population growth. By analyzing 24 historical population estimates spanning approximately 2,000 years, they concluded that population growth was accelerating due to increased human cooperation and communication. Their equation suggested that, if these trends continued without limit, the global population would reach a mathematical singularity—or infinity—by the specified date in 2026.

The model has had various historical impacts, appearing in genetics and ecology textbooks and even being cited in political and legal contexts, such as Canadian parliamentary discussions on pesticides and American legal debates regarding reproductive rights. While some mathematicians and demographers dismissed the model as ‘absurd’ at the time, the authors continued to defend their mathematical findings.