High school athlete odds for college rosters and scholarships

Data analysis reveals the statistical difficulty high school athletes face when attempting to reach the collegiate level. Only 7% of high school athletes compete on a college roster at any level, and just 2% secure a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) athletic scholarship.

Football remains the most popular high school sport, with over 1 million participants in the 2022-2023 school year. Due to large roster sizes, football players face 11:1 odds of making any college roster and 33:1 odds for Division I programs. In track and field, boys face 16:1 odds while girls face 13:1 odds. Conversely, niche sports present much steeper challenges; for example, female wrestlers faced 709:1 odds of securing a spot on a Division I team during the 2022-2023 period.