Historical fossil fuel emissions to drive warming until 2500

A study published in PLOS Climate indicates that historical emissions from major oil, gas, coal, and cement producers will continue to influence global warming and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events for centuries, potentially until the year 2500.

Researchers from the University of Washington utilized simulations to trace the impact of carbon majors—the top 178 fossil fuel and cement producers—on atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations. The study highlights that due to the high persistence of carbon dioxide, the environment will not immediately revert to previous states even if emissions were to cease abruptly.

Findings suggest that even with a significant reduction in current emissions, the Earth is expected to remain approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. The research provides a scientific basis for attribution science, which connects specific climate disasters to the emissions of individual entities, a factor increasingly relevant to legal efforts to hold major emitters accountable for climate-related damages.