Hong Kong retail spending projected to shift toward mainland China and Macau

Euromonitor International forecasts that Hong Kong residents will increasingly spend their money outside the territory. By 2026, approximately 31% of local spending is projected to occur across the border, with that figure expected to reach 35% by 2028 as consumers shop in mainland China and Macau.

Prudence Lai, a senior consultant at Euromonitor, noted during the Retail Asia Summit 2026 that local retailers are now competing across the Greater Bay Area rather than just within Hong Kong. Consumers frequently compare local prices and services with those in Shenzhen. To retain customers, Lai suggested retailers must emphasize trust, service, and unique experiences.

Hong Kong is described as a mature, aging, and slower-growth market. The population aged 65 or older is expected to rise from 25% today to 38% by 2040, which may drive demand for wellness and preventative care. While tourism provides some offset, visitor spending on shopping is projected to remain flat in 2026 before growing steadily through 2031.