SK Hynix faces capacity shortfall as global DRAM market tightens

A wave of developments is reshaping the DRAM and broader memory market. Samsung’s popular 870 EVO SSD has been widely counterfeited; the fake units appear genuine but fail after about 120 GB of writes, rendering data stored on them unrecoverable. In China, CXMT (長鑫存儲) is projected to reach a monthly capacity of roughly 350,000 wafers this year, close to Micron’s output, positioning China as a potential second‑largest DRAM producer if additional domestic fabs come online. South Korea’s SK Hynix is unlikely to meet its 2028 capacity targets, with analysts estimating only one‑sixth of the planned expansion will be operational, deepening supply constraints. Samsung Electronics is accelerating construction of its Yongin (Y1) wafer fab, aiming to start production in 2029 and lift monthly output from 650,000 to 1 million wafers to satisfy AI‑driven demand. The U.S. International Trade Commission has opened a 337 investigation into Samsung, Google, Nvidia, Broadcom and others over alleged patent infringements in high‑bandwidth memory and DDR5 modules. Meanwhile, the exit of major NAND players such as Micron, Kioxia and Samsung from certain market segments has created a supply gap, driving SLC and MLC NAND prices up three‑fold and prompting Taiwanese and Chinese firms to expand capacity. Market analysts warn that global DRAM demand will outstrip supply through 2030, keeping prices elevated and risking broader technology cost pressures.