Hydrogen industry faces slowed deployment as forecasts cut and US GAO flags limits

The DNV 2026 Energy Transition Outlook reduced its global clean hydrogen production forecast by 45%, now expecting 150‑160 million tonnes annually by 2050. The downgrade reflects delayed projects, weaker policy support, financing challenges and the difficulty of moving announced capacity into commercial operation. Despite the cut, DNV still projects cumulative hydrogen‑related investment of about $3.2 trillion through 2060.

A U.S. Government Accountability Office assessment released in April 2026 found hydrogen’s commercial footprint remains marginal. Hydrogen fuel cells generate only about 0.03 % of utility‑scale electricity and hydrogen‑powered vehicles account for less than 0.01 % of fuel consumption. Most of the roughly 10 million tonnes produced annually in the United States go to petroleum refining and ammonia synthesis. Low‑carbon hydrogen is far more expensive than conventional fuels, with retail prices around $35.80 per energy‑equivalent gallon—well above the DOE target of $7. Infrastructure is limited, with just over 2,000 miles of dedicated hydrogen pipelines, mainly in the Gulf Coast. The GAO highlights structural barriers, high costs and policy uncertainty as key reasons for the sluggish rollout.