Hyundai and Kia vehicle thefts projected to persist through 2042

A study led by researchers at UCLA, USC, and Boston College predicts that thefts of vulnerable Hyundai and Kia models in Los Angeles will remain above normal levels until at least 2042. The research, published in the International Journal of Forecasting, suggests that theft rates will not return to negligible levels until between 2043 and 2050, primarily due to the long lifespan of these vehicles in the used car market.

The vulnerability stems from millions of vehicles sold between 2011 and 2022 that feature traditional turn-key ignitions without engine immobilizers. This flaw allows engines to be started using simple tools like USB cables. While the “Kia Boys” social media trend brought widespread attention to the issue, researchers note that the theft patterns are driven by the arithmetic of used car circulation.

The study highlights a socioeconomic divide in the impact: higher-income areas are expected to see fewer thefts as older, at-risk models are traded in for newer vehicles, whereas lower-income areas will continue to see higher theft rates as vulnerable cars move through the used market before eventually being scrapped.