US‑Iran clashes push oil higher, pressure Brazil’s currency and markets
The United States and Iran resumed attacks on strategic targets, including the Strait of Hormuz, after a cease‑fire collapsed. The escalation lifted Brent crude above $78 a barrel and WTI by more than 4%, reviving concerns about supply disruptions in a route that carries roughly 20% of global oil trade.
In Brazil, the oil surge helped the real outperform other emerging‑market currencies, keeping the dollar at about R$5.13, its lowest level in three weeks. Nevertheless, higher fuel costs are feeding inflationary pressure and complicating the Central Bank’s effort to lower the Selic rate. The Ibovespa slipped around 0.8% as risk‑aversion rose, while Petrobras shares found some support from the higher oil price.
European markets saw a rebound in technology stocks after three days of decline, as investors judged the geopolitical shock to be manageable. Portugal’s finance minister warned that renewed Middle‑East tensions could again raise fuel prices and strain the budget, while analysts noted that the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz may decline over the longer term as alternative routes develop.
Iran accused the United States of breaching a sanctions‑related agreement, adding a diplomatic dimension to the conflict. The combined economic and security fallout is being tracked across the United States, Iran, Brazil and Portugal.