IEA forecasts global oil surplus by year‑end, hints at lower gasoline prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the world oil market will move into surplus by the end of this year and continue into 2027, provided that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz keep recovering after the recent cease‑fire between Iran and the United States. The agency notes a gradual rise in Persian Gulf exports, which reached 16.1 million barrels per day in June, still well below the pre‑conflict average of 24 million bpd. Global oil production rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June to 98.8 million bpd, while demand is expected to decline modestly in 2026 before growing again in 2027. The IEA cautions that any escalation of hostilities could disrupt these forecasts, but under the current de‑escalation scenario the surplus could help ease gasoline prices worldwide.

The outlook also assumes a seasonal recovery in demand and a continued, albeit limited, increase in supply, with global crude production projected to reach 102.6 million bpd in 2026 and about 110 million bpd in 2027.