International Energy Agency warns oil demand drop as Gulf tensions resume

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2026 oil‑demand forecast, now expecting a decline of about 1 million barrels per day, slightly less than the 1.1 million‑bpd cut projected a month earlier. The agency attributes the drop to the ongoing war between the United States and Iran, which has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced Middle‑East production.

In June, global oil supply rose sharply by 4.1 million bpd to 98.8 million bpd as tanker traffic through Hormuz partially resumed, but overall output remains roughly 9.4 million bpd below pre‑war levels. Total Persian Gulf exports increased to 16.1 million bpd, still far below the pre‑conflict average of 24 million bpd. Global oil inventories grew for the first time in months, while Brent crude fell to the mid‑$70s per barrel.

The IEA warned that renewed fighting on 7‑8 July could reverse the modest recovery and stressed that a lasting peace agreement is essential for normalising oil markets.