IEA warns oil and gas investment is vital to offset production declines

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has acknowledged that maintaining global oil and gas production requires substantial ongoing investment to offset natural field decline rates. While previous net-zero roadmaps suggested halting new projects to avoid stranded assets, the IEA’s 2025 analysis indicates that global decline rates average nearly 6% annually.

If investment in existing production were to cease, natural decline could reduce global oil production by approximately 8% per year, or about 5.5 million barrels per day. To maintain current production levels through 2050, the IEA estimates that more than 45 million additional barrels per day would be required from new conventional oil fields.

Geopolitical conflicts, including tensions involving Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine, highlight how underinvestment and supply chain vulnerabilities can transform energy assumptions into significant economic risks.