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[INTERNATIONAL] · United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia · 16 sources

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Part of situation: Middle East economic impact of Iran conflict (6 clusters)

IMF forecasts MENAP economic contraction in 2026 due to Middle East conflict

IMF MENAP region Middle East conflict economic contraction energy production disruptions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 1.3% contraction in economic output for the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) in 2026. This downturn is attributed to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and Israel, which has disrupted energy production, maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, tourism, and trade.

Oil-exporting economies are expected to face the most severe impacts. Specifically, the IMF anticipates sharp declines in several Gulf states, including Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In contrast, oil-importing nations have shown greater resilience due to domestic demand, remittances, and proactive policy support.

A significant rebound is forecasted for 2027, with regional growth projected at 6.6% as the IMF assumes the conflict will abate and trade will normalize. However, even with this recovery, overall output is expected to remain below pre-war trajectories.

On a global scale, the IMF projects growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. While the technology sector and artificial intelligence investment have provided a demand impulse, the Fund warns that global economic resilience is becoming increasingly fragile and uneven.

Entities

International Monetary Fund · Iran · Middle East · North Africa · Pakistan

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Sources

MENAP economy to rebound 6.6 percent in 2027 as energy exports and shipping recover, IMF says [economymiddleeast.com]
Historic Appointment of Fatima Zahra El Mansouri as Morocco's Prime Minister Sparks Mixed Reactions [lemaroc360.com]
Marokko verhoogt onderwijsbudget naar 121 miljard dirham en plant bijna 18.000 banen [nieuws.marokko.nl]
The IMF Just Raised Its Economic Growth Forecast. Buried in the Report Is a Warning for Stock Investors. | The Motley Fool [www.fool.com]
Middle East conflict and energy shocks shape IMF-World Bank agenda in Bangkok [timesofmiddleeast.com]
Fatima El Mansouri: cómo la primera mujer en liderar el gobierno de Marruecos está atrapada entre el rey, los clérigos y el feminismo - BBC News Mundo [www.bbc.com]
IMF | World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Global Growth Holds Up at 3.1%, Eurozone at 1.1% | European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources [eaccny.com]
IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Pakistan, Middle East and North Africa in 2026 [islamabadpost.com.pk]
IMF Warns Iran War Could Push Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan Region Into Recession [netmag.pk]
IMF Sees Middle East Economy Shrinking 1.3 Percent [newscentraltv.com]
IMF: The global economy remains resilient, but the resilience is becoming more fragile and more uneven [3news.com]
النفط يتدفق.. لكن اقتصادات الخليج تنكمش | الحرة [alhurra.com]
IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026 [www.arabnews.pk]
Weekly Graphic: The World Economy in 2026 [geopoliticalfutures.com]
IMF warns global economy is resilient but increasingly vulnerable and uneven [ghanaguardian.com]
صندوق النقد يتوقع انكماش اقتصادات الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وباكستان بـ 1.3 بالمئة [sana.sy]