IMF forecasts divergent economic growth across Middle East and North Africa

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released regional economic outlooks projecting significant divergence among economies in the Middle East and North Africa through 2026 and 2027.

Several oil-exporting nations are expected to face contractions in 2026. Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are projected to see real GDP declines of 16.7%, 16%, and 15.6% respectively. Within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the bloc is expected to contract by 4.8% in 2026, with Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia also facing declines. Oman is the only GCC nation projected to grow in 2026, with a rate of 4.1%.

Conversely, oil-importing nations are expected to maintain growth. Egypt is projected to grow by 5.1% and Morocco by 4.5% in 2026. However, Morocco's growth momentum may slow, with the IMF revising its 2026 forecast downward due to risks from high energy and commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, and increased import costs.

While the regional economy is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2026, the IMF anticipates a recovery in 2027, with regional growth projected to reach 6.6%.